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Fixed Income Research

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  • Adamant Capital (Ukraine)
  • Concorde Capital
  • Eavex Capital
  • Empire State Capital Partners
  • Finance Ministry of Ukraine
  • FUIB
  • ICU
  • Magister Capital
  • Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine
  • NRA-Ryurik
  • OTP Bank (Ukraine)
  • Raiffeisen Bank Aval
  • Sberbank (Ukraine)
  • SP Advisors
  • UkrSibbank
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February 21, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Rates remain stable
Description
Compared with last week's auction dominated by 3-month bond rates, this week's auction had low demand of just UAH1.42bn (par value), of which the MoF satisfied 86% to receive UAH1.18bn of budget proceeds. It appears that non-resident participation was smaller than before and there was lower competition between bidders. While last week's 3-month and 6-month bond rates were at 15.89%, yesterday the lowest rate for the 3-month bond was 16.00% and the for 6-month, 16.23%.
February 20, 2018
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest February 14 - 20, 2018
UkrSibbank Ukraine Capital Markets Weekly
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily February 20, 2018
February 19, 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Fixed Income Weekly February 19, 2018
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Feb. 19, 2018)
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Feb. 19, 2018)
February 16, 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily February 16, 2018
February 15, 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily February 15, 2018
February 14, 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily February 14, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Interest rates and volumes decline
Description
Demand was down threefold yesterday to UAH2.16bn and interest rates for some bonds declined significantly, enabling the MoF to satisfy nearly 70% of demand and receive UAH1.47bn of proceeds. With demand concentrated at the shortest 3-month and 6-month maturities, providing a majority of the budget proceeds, only UAH500m of each maturity was offered.
February 13, 2018
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest February 7 - 13, 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily February 13, 2018
UkrSibbank Ukraine Capital Markets Weekly
Galt and Taggart Regional Fixed Income Market Watch (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine)
February 12, 2018
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Feb 12, 2018)
Empire State Capital Partners Fixed Income Weekly February 12, 2018
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Feb. 12, 2018)
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily February 12, 2018
February 09, 2018
ICU Quarterly Report-Debt deflation Я Us
Description
Below is a brief, broad overview of Ukraine's economy as of year-end 2017, and our rationale for the base-case economic projections for 2018-2020. Economic growth accelerates, but still is under restraint of ongoing debt deflation. Over the course of 2017, Ukraine's GDP growth has gradually decelerated, and we estimate it come in at 2.0% for the whole year. Strong consumer demand, higher fixed asset investment, and stable government consumption were the main driving forces, and they countervailed the negative impact of foreign trade. In 2018, thanks to a better external environment, our projection is now in line with consensus, which is for a +3% real GDP increase for 2018, followed by weak growth of +1.9% in 2019. We argue that Ukraine's economic recovery is restrained by a process of ongoing debt deflation, where sizable defaults are due to past outsized FX lending. Foreign trade: world commodity markets are changing to less favourable, as we expect oil price growth to accelerate to 17% YoY, while steel and iron ore prices to decline 8-16% YoY in 2018. This puts additional pressure on Ukraine's trade balance, as oil and gas energy resources account for about 25% of Ukraine's imports, while metals and ores still comprise ~30% of Ukraine's exports. Ukraine has already started increasing its energy independence and growing export potential this year, but faces likely shortfalls and delays. We see Ukraine's trade deficit to widen 11% to $7bn in 2018, with significant upside risks. Sovereign debt: government supply of yield-earning assets widens. For 2018 main debt burden for state budget is amounted to about US$10.4bn, mostly denominated in FX, including US$3.21bn in domestic debt denominated in FX. So, 2018 will be one of decisions on how to navigate the peak in external debt repayments scheduled for 2019-2020, which amount to around US$4.5bn each year. The MoF will try to increase its market presence this year, and will make attempts to issue new Eurobonds or tap UKRAIN 7.375% '32, which was issued in September 2017. Bank lending: competition for solvent borrowers is heightening. Long-awaited bank lending started to spring out. In 2017, retail loans, mainly credit card and auto loans, demonstrated 30% YoY growth driven by low comparison base and better consumer expectations. This segment will remain the most vibrant alongside the SME lending, as more banks turn into that niche. Mortgages are yet to pick up but we do not expect this to happen until the inflation abates. Corporate lending is growing due to the short-term loans issued by banks with European capital. NPL remain extremely high 54.9%, mainly due to Privatbank's loan portfolio shenanigans and dubious "administrative" lending from state banks. The Ukrainian parliament is about to fully address NPLs problem with a respective new law. External macroeconomic and financial markets environment appears supportive of Ukraine's economy for now and for the next 12-month period. Despite the fact that the US Fed appears committed to a series of steady interest rate increases, the US dollar has been weakening since early 2017. This trend is projected to extend well into 2018. UAH's adjustment will take place gradually over 2018. We reiterate our forecast of hryvnia depreciating gradually from average 26.66/USD in 2017 to 28.5/USD in 2018. The key factors influencing hryvnia's soft depreciation are still mostly favourable external financial markets, defensive tactics of Ukrainian authorities in the monetary sphere during the pre-election year, and hryvnia being overvalued according to the real TWI-implied rates.
ICU Daily Insight -- Budget absorbs funds from bond sales
Description
Despite its decline against the US dollar at the beginning of the trading on Thursday because of NBU FX transactions, following a UAH4.2bn decrease in liquidity, the hryvnia recovered at the end of the day to close at 27.1240 UAH/USD. It sold for 27.09 UAH/USD versus 27.32 to buy at the Ukrainian cash market. Its CPI-based real trade-weighted index rose 0.42% to 109.85; in year-on-year terms, it is up 2.19% from 107.5 last year.
February 08, 2018
ICU Daily Insight -- UAH continues to strengthen
Description
The hryvnia appreciated another 1.3% to 27.1196 UAH/USD, hitting a two-month high. Up 2.8% in nominal terms since the beginning of the week, Tuesday's auction with higher interest rates that attracted non-resident investors appears to be the catalyst. The NBU also purchased about US$200bn (see comment on liquidity). In the local market, the hryvnia sold for 27.36 UAH/USD versus 27.59 to buy at the Ukrainian cash market. Its CPI-based real trade-weighted index rose 1.84% to 109.38; in year-on-year terms, it is up 1.73% from 107.52 last year. 
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily February 08, 2018
February 07, 2018
Magister Capital Ukraine: Macroeconomic Overview, February 2018
Concorde Capital Ukraine Economy Update, February 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Proceeds up, cut-off rates steady
Description
Yesterday, although the MoF rejected bids for 2-year and 3-year bonds because of high interest rates, it borrowed UAH5.24bn, a significant UAH1.61bn more than it did last week, in local currency bonds.The cut-off rates for bonds with maturities up to one year remained unchanged.
ICU Daily Insight -- MoF borrows UAH5.24bn from new bonds
Description
Yesterday, the MoF sold UAH5.24bn in bonds with maturities up to one year while it rejected high rate bids and low demand for 2-year and 3-year bonds. Accepting nearly 85% of demand, the 3-month and 6-month bonds attracted the most demand, exceeding UAH2bn for each bond, while the 9-month drew UAH1.07bn and the 1-year had only UAH0.19bn. 2-year and 3-year bonds received demand of UAH0.10bn and UAH0.23bn, respectively. 
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily February 07, 2018
February 06, 2018
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest January 31 - February 6, 2018
UkrSibbank Ukraine Capital Markets Weekly
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