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Fixed Income Research

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  • Adamant Capital (Ukraine)
  • Alfa-Bank Ukraine
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  • Concorde Capital
  • Eavex Capital
  • Empire State Capital Partners
  • Expert-analytical Center OPTIMA
  • Finance Ministry of Ukraine
  • FUIB
  • ICU
  • Magister Capital
  • Metinvest
  • NRA-Ryurik
  • OTP Bank (Ukraine)
  • Pivdenny Bank
  • Raiffeisen Bank Aval
  • Sberbank (Ukraine)
  • SP Advisors
  • UkrSibbank
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Source Research
November 15, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Budget borrowed UAH1bn
Tuesday's primary bond auction came in close to our expectations. The Ministry of Finance refused to increase interest rates for local-currency bills, rejecting nearly a quarter of demand for these instruments. At the same time, 97% of demand for FX-denominated bills was accepted.
November 13, 2018
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest (November 7 - 13, 2018)
UkrSibbank Ukraine Capital Markets Weekly
ICU Weekly Insight -- Inflation accelerates
Robust consumer demand, a gas price hike for population, and seasonal UAH weakening will continue to put upward pressure on inflation.
November 09, 2018
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine
SP Advisors Ukraine Economy: IMF deal provides relief, but challenges persist. Nov 9, 2018
November 08, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Bond rates unchanged
The first primary auction in November provided the budget with UAH1.2bn of proceeds, including UAH0.8 in local currency and US$21.5m in FX. The Ministry kept interest rates unchanged for all offered bonds, four in local currency and one in FX.
November 06, 2018
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest October 31 - November 6, 2018
UkrSibbank Ukraine Capital Markets Weekly
ICU Weekly Insight -- NBU estimates real GDP at +3.1% YoY in 3Q18
Economic growth slowed to 3.1% YoY in 3Q18, down from 3.8% YoY in 2Q18, per data from the NBU. In QoQ terms, growth was 1% QoQ SA (ICU's estimate as implied by the NBU's 3Q18 year-on-year estimate).
November 02, 2018
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine (Nov. 2, 2018)
November 01, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Ministry rejected just one bid
This Tuesday, the MoF rejected just one bid out of 29 received for the auction. However, this bid was 97% of demand for local-currency bills. With this decision, the Ministry refused nearly half a billion of proceeds to keep the cut-off rate for three-month bills at the same level as at previous October auctions.
October 31, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- NBU keeps key rate at 18%
The key rate remains at 18% at least until 13 December amid positive developments in Ukraine-IMF cooperation.
October 30, 2018
ICU Economic Insight-Ukraine: New Eurobonds issue: Funding 1H19 debt repayments is now likely
Last week, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine successfully placed US$2bn of Eurobonds. As a result, the government should have enough FX funds to repay external debt through May 2019, as we expect the IMF Executive Board to approve the new stand-by agreement with Ukraine this December and IMF-conditioned tranche from the EU and borrowings under the WB guarantee will be received. The yields of the new Eurobonds are slightly higher than the sovereign yield curve, which makes them attractive for investors. Due to political risks, Ukraine's sovereign curve justifiably should remain above those of peers with ratings B/B-, at least until 2020.
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest (Octiber 24 - 30, 2018)
October 26, 2018
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine
October 25, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Partial refinancing
On Tuesday, the Ministry of Finance refinanced only a part of debt repayments in FX, and borrowed US$34.4m and EUR24.6m. At the same time, the MoF rejected only a small part of demand for the auction. Actually, only a quarter of yesterday's debt repayments was refinanced, and to make repayments, the MoF most likely exchanged funds borrowed last week in US dollars into euros. 
Raiffeisen Bank Aval Focus Ukraine (October, 2018)
October 24, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Ukraine reaches new agreement with the IMF
The current EEF programme is replaced by a new 14-month Stand-By Arrangement in the amount of US$3.9bт. The new deal will allow Ukraine to unlock financing from other international financial institutions for repaying and servicing FX debt in 4Q18 and 2019.
October 23, 2018
ICU Economic Insight-Ukraine and the IMF: New SBA deal to unlock FX financing
The IMF and Ukraine reached a priliminary agreement on a new US$3.9bn 14-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) on Friday, 19 October. The new SBA programme replaces the previous Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and provides Ukraine with double the funds compared with those left from the EFF. Resuming cooperation with the Fund enables Ukraine to unlock financing from other international financial institutions, and tap the Eurobond markets as soon as this year, in order to meet the challenging US$12bn in FX obligations in 4Q18-2019. Increased availability of external funding should boost Ukraine's FX reserves to US$20bn as of YE2018 and provide some support to the depreciating hryvnia. 
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest (October 17 - 23, 2018)
UkrSibbank Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly
October 22, 2018
FUIB Financial markets survey 22.10.2018
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Oct. 22, 2018)
Eavex Capital Еженедельный обзор рынка 22 октября 2018 г.
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Oct. 22, 2018)
October 19, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- The Ministry of Finance found reserves
In yesterday's unscheduled, although expected, auction, the MoF offered only USD-denominated bills, and received nearly UA$242m of budget proceeds. These will go toward October's FX debt repayments.
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine (19 Oct 2018)
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