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May 10, 2012
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Обзор валютного рынка 10.05.2012
May 08, 2012
Cbonds Group Ежемесячный бюллетень «Долговой рынок Украины» за апрель 2012 г.
ICU Government bond auction results: Budget proceeds of nearly UAH1.0bn received
Description
Once again, the MoF offered 5-year and 7-year local-currency bonds to the market, which provided the majority of budget proceeds today. At the same time, an increase in banking sector liquidity supported demand for the 12-month, local-currency bonds. In addition, USD-denominated bonds were sold again. From the 15 bids collected today, only one bid, submitted for the 2-year local-currency bond, with the usual interest rate for this bond of 15.0%, was rejected. But, the MoF decided that the bid was at too high of a level and rejected the demand for the note, which amounted to UAH250.0m. The rest of demand seen at the auction was divided among three bonds: (1) the 12-month bond, which collected five bids at a total volume of UAH352.0m; (2) the 1.6-year, USD-denominated bond, which also collected five bids, amounting to UAH19.15m, or UAH153.88m; and (3) the 5-year, local-currency bond, which received four bids, amounting to UAH500.0m. All of the above-mentioned demand was satisfied, and the cut-off rates were the same as at the last few auctions, at 14.0% for the 12-month bond, 9.3% for the 1.6-year, USD-denominated bond, and 14.3% for the 5-year, local-currency bond. We should note that today, the MoF attempted to decrease the interest rate for the 12-month bond, because of the likely one bid submitted at an interest rate of 13.99%, but this did not have an impact on the final rates. In total, the MoF received UAH974.78m today, including UAH160.27m, or US$19.95m, from USD-denominated bonds. These proceeds were enough to cover the interest repayments scheduled for this week, at a total volume of UAH121.72m. The rest of the proceeds received from today\'s auction funds will be set aside for next week, when the MoF has to pay UAH2.67bn, including UAH2.28bn in principal repayments. Read full comment in the attachment (5 pages, PDF file 513KB)
ICU Weekly review: Local liquidity in retreat, bond activity up as USD bonds auctioned
Description
This week, Ukraine\'s bond markets will be focused on sovereign USD paper, and the USD-denominated bond will be offered at this week\'s auctions. Abroad, the MoF will be following Eurobond market developments closely in order to determine whether the recent yield decline in its USD bonds would resume, possibly shrugging off market jitters stemming from macro and political risks in the developed economies. The other possibility is that the decline in yields will reverse, which would delay efforts by Ukraine to tap the Eurobond market. Local currency. After French presidential and Greek parliamentary elections Sunday, a risk-off attitude may resurface towards the euro and Eurozone financial markets. The fact of the matter is that the German-led resolution to the Eurozone debt crunch is under real risk. New French president Francois Hollande will be the first to dare to put this question to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Thus, instead of a \"Merkozy\" approach to Eurozone debt issues, which epitomised a not-so-smooth, but unified approach to the crisis resolution, there is now the possibility of \"Merlande\" intervention, which carries risks of creating a harsher atmosphere between the two powers, who already lack a unified approach; at the very least, it now appears that prospects for a co-operative approach will be difficult to formulate in the near future. Hence, FX markets will be anxious about EUR risks, which is likely to put pressure on the Eurozone currency, and conversely, the USD could now see its value rising. In due course, the UAH should follow the greenback and rise in trade-weighted terms. However, the possibility of an increase in the UAH\'s real value would be manageable, as this year, it has declined quite noticeably, by nearly 6% in year-to-date terms. Hence, again, the UAH nominal exchange rate, which is determined by the spot market, is most likely to resume its slow crawl into weaker territory, which we project to be at 8.10/USD at year-end (for more detail, see ICU\'s Quarterly Report \"Pinned again?\" published in April). Domestic bonds market. This month\'s debut primary auction did not provide the MoF with significant budget proceeds, allowing the MoF to cover only 15.39% of debt interest and principal repayments made last week. At the same time, banking sector liquidity fell significantly after tax payments were made and banks purchased new government bonds at the end of April. But, this decline was aggravated by Naftogaz when it used its local-currency funds for the part of the payment to Gazprom. Despite liquidity falling, however, the primary auction today could be more active, mostly because USD-denominated bonds will be offered. Eurobonds market. Ukrainian Eurobonds significantly rose last week to the range of 91.50-95.50, with UTMs falling below the MoF\'s ceiling of 9.0% at the start of the year. The UKRAIN 6.75% \'17, which will be the benchmark for new, 5-year Eurobonds this year, saw its YTM fall to 8.54% last Friday. If external factors, like elections in Greece and France, will not ease the volatility in the market, the MoF will have good chance for the new issue very soon. Read full comment in the attachment (25 pages, PDF file 1891KB)
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Украина/Ежедневный обзор рынков: Дефляция приближается?/ОВГЗ: снижение ликвидности может сократить спрос на 12-мес. облигации
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Market Snapshot: Deflation is nearing?/Government bonds: reduced liquidity may limit demand for 12M bonds
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Обзор валютного рынка 08.05.2012
ICU Inflation in April; gov\'t bond auction announced; UAH up on spot markets as well as in TWI terms
Description
Economics: Inflation in April paints a mixed picture In April, according to the State Statistics Committee, headline CPI was flat versus the previous month, while the PPI spiked by 3.7% over March. In annual terms, CPI slowed to 0.6% YoY in April, down 1.3ppt from 1.6% YoY in March. At the same time, the annual pace of PPI growth picked up to 9.8% YoY, from 9.5% YoY a month earlier. Flat monthly CPI was due to falling food prices (the food sub-index contracted 0.2% MoM), counterweighted by rising transport (+2.2% MoM) and beverages (+1.0% MoM) prices. In the PPI, there was a sizable spike in utilities prices (+13.5% MoM), which resulted in a sizable increase in the Producer Price Index. The State Statistics Committee stated in its monthly report that electricity tariffs for industrial customers (regulated by the state) rose by 15% MoM in April, whereas household electricity tariffs (state-regulated as well) stayed flat. Attached please find the complete report, which includes supporting charts and tables for all comments (PDF file: 11 pages, 1104KB)
May 07, 2012
UkrSibbank Ukraine Capital Markets Weekly
ICU Banking sector liquidity: Slight recovery; UAH in light of FX reserves dynamics
Description
Bonds: Banking sector liquidity: Slight recovery Last Friday, the second business day in May, broader banking sector liquidity significantly rose, by UAH1.77bn to UAH25.20bn: banks\' correspondent accounts with the NBU rose by UAH1.21bn, to UAH18.33bn, and the total volume of the NBU\'s CDs outstanding rose by UAH0.56bn, to UAH2.94bn; meanwhile, total volume of the debt repayments scheduled for the next 30 days remains steady, at UAH3.94bn. A total of UAH0.30bn of liquidity was likely provided by the NBU via repos in the local-currency long-term bonds. KyivPrime interest rates slightly diverged last Friday: the KyivPrime ON rate fell by 32bp, to 2.06%, and the KyivPrime 1M interest rate rose by 3bp, to 7.03%. Attached please find the complete report, which includes supporting charts and tables for all comments (PDF file: 11 pages, 1140KB)
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Обзор валютного рынка 07.05.2012
May 04, 2012
ICU Government bond auction results:Insufficient demand for the longer bonds
Description
The first primary auction in May, held by the MoF yesterday, showed an apparent lack ofdemand from the market, even for the shorter-maturity, 12-month bonds. Loan payments made at the end of last monthand tax payments made last week significantly cut banking sector liquidity, which was likely the main reason for the lack of market demand yesterday. Yesterday\'s auction received only two bids, one eachfor the 5-year and 7-year bonds, but the volumes of demand were insufficient, at only UAH50.0m par value for each bond. At the same time, interest rates remained at their initial levelsof the yearof 14.30% and 14.00% for the 5-year and 7-year bonds, respectively. The low level of interest rates for these issues was only slightly different from the interest rate seen forthe 12-month, local-currency bond, combined withthe fact that the 5-year and 7-year bonds were sold atvery low interest rates, could indicate collusion between the bidders and the issuers. Furthermore, these bonds were likely purchased by state-owned or recently recapitalised banks. As a result of the auction, the MoF received only UAH100.61m of budget proceeds, which will cover only 15.39% of the debt interest and principal repayments scheduled for this week at a total volume of UAH653.65m. Next week, the MoF has to repay UAH121.72m in interest repayments, and will hold an auction only once, on Tuesday,in which the MoF will offer two local-currency bonds and two USD-denominated bonds. But, despite the insufficient volume of interest repayments scheduled for the next week, activity on the primary market will likely rise, and be concentrated on the 12-month, zero-coupon, local-currency bond and 1.7-year, USD-denominated bond. Read full comment in the attachment (5 pages, PDF file 509KB)
ICU Gov\'t bond auction brings modest proceeds; NBU extends intervention-free streak
Description
Bonds: Banking sector liquidity likely hits trough level End-of-month tax payments and the purchasing of new local-currency bonds last week were the likely reasons for the decline in liquidity yesterday, which should hit its trough level this week, but is just as likely to increase during the next few days. Banks\' correspondent accounts with the NBU fell yesterday by UAH1.25bn, to UAH17.11bn, the lowest level since the beginning of March, 2012. But, more than half of these funds were spent on the NBU\'s CDs, and the total volume of the CDs outstanding rose by UAH0.95bn, to UAH2.38bn. Additionally, the total volume of the debt repayments scheduled for the next 30 days also rose, by UAH0.32b,n to UAH3.97bn. KyivPrime interest rates fell significantly yesterday: the KyivPrime ON rate fell by 370bp, to 2.38%, and the KyivPrime 1M interest rate declined by 17bp, to 7.00%. Attached please find the complete report, which includes supporting charts and tables for all comments (PDF file: 10 pages, 982KB)
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Украина/Ежедневный обзор рынков: Рост ВВП за 1 кв./График аукционов ОВГЗ на май/Результаты аукциона ОВГЗ/Приватбанк: результаты за 1 кв.
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Market Snapshot: 1Q12 GDP growth/Bond auction schedule for May/Bond auction results/Privatbank 1Q12 net result
May 03, 2012
ICU Результаты аукциона по продаже ОВГЗ: незначительный спрос на длинные облигации
Description
Первый аукцион в мае, похоже, остался без рыночного спроса даже на самые короткие облигации со сроком погашения через год. Конец месяца и осуществлённые на прошлой неделе налоговые платежи существенно снизили ликвидность в банковской системе, что и могло послужить причиной отсутствия рыночного спроса. Сегодняшний аукцион получил только две заявки, по одной на самые длинные ОВГЗ со сроком погашения через пять и семь лет. А объёмы спроса были незначительными, лишь по 50 млн гривень на каждую из облигаций. При этом процентные ставки в очередной раз находились на изначальном уровне 14.30% и 14.00% соответственно, на 5-летнюю и 7-летнюю облигации. Низкий уровень процентных ставок по данным ОВГЗ, который несущественно отличается от ставок по 12-месячным облигациям, не может не наводить на мысль о том, что размещение этих облигаций содержит в себе определённые договорённости Минфина и НБУ с их покупателем или покупателями. А покупателем, скорее всего, выступает один из государственных либо рекапитализированных государством банков. По итогам аукциона Минфин собрал всего 100.61 млн гривень поступлений, что покрыло лишь 15.39% выплат по обслуживанию и погашению долга, запланированных на эту неделю в сумме 653.65 млн гривень. На следующей неделе Минфин должен будет выплатить всего 121.72 млн гривень обслуживания долга, а аукцион будет только один раз во вторник, на котором рынку будут предложены две облигации в национальной валюте и две в долларах США. Однако, несмотря на небольшую сумму выплат, активность должна возрасти, сконцентрировавшись на 12-месячной номинированной в гривне облигации и 1.7-летней облигации номинированной в иностранной валюте. Полный текст комментария содержится в прикрепленном файле (5 стр., PDF файл 587Кб)
ICU Weekly review: Super-short-week features local bond auction
Description
Ukraine\'s bond markets are functioning in their usual mode. The local market is absorbing sovereign bonds denominated in UAH as well as in USD and EUR, and the government is eyeing a Eurobond bond issue this month or early next month. Local currency. The FX market remains a dull grind for the NBU, staying on the sidelines of the market (the last intervention to prop up the UAH was in mid-January), but the market players are being closely watched over by the authorities; hence, USD/UAH fluctuations are slim. Next week will see macro news arriving with CPI and FX reserves in the spotlight, which, in our view, will be UAH-positive. Against this backdrop, Ukraine\'s political image of a country bordering on pariah status (over its jailed former PM) is an additional negative factor affecting sentiment on the UAH. Domestic bonds market. The decline in liquidity last week was caused by the tax payments scheduled for the end of last week and by the purchasing of new, local-currency bonds, which were bought by market players at a total volume of UAH1.34bn. But, liquidity fell by UAH3.55bn during the week, and will continue to decline today, as the last tax payments of the month were likely made last Saturday, which was a business day in Ukraine. Though this week will have only two business days, the MoF did not exclude its auctions schedule, and today will offer four bonds, but will likely not sell a significant volume of bonds. This auction will be the first of the month, and which the MoF will hold auctions twice each week, skipping only the 10th of May. The list of bonds offered will likely be the same as last week\'s, excluding only the FX-denominated, puttable bond. Eurobonds market. YTMs of Ukrainian Eurobonds quite improved from two weeks ago, and started to decline last week, while yesterday, they were mostly below the 9.00% level (assigned as the MoF\'s ceiling for the new issue), and only YTMs of the longest bonds, with maturities in 2020 and 2021, were above the ceiling. Under these conditions and the positive background from Greece and Italy, the MoF will likely prepare the new Eurobond issue this month. Read full comment in the attachment (25 pages, PDF file 1924KB)
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Украина/Ежедневный обзор рынков: Платежный баланс в марте/Реальная зарплата в марте/Аукцион ОВГЗ/ДТЭК: фин. результат за 2011 год
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Market Snapshot: BOP in March/Real wage growth in March/Government bonds auction/DTEK 2011 IFRS results
ICU Preliminary 1Q12 real GDP growth; wages growth slows; gov\'t bond auctions in May
Description
Economics: Preliminary estimate on real GDP growth in 1Q12 The State Statistics Service provided preliminary estimates on the pace of economic activity in 1Q12 yesterday, showing that real GDP grew by 1.8% YoY, while the economy contracted by 0.3% in seasonally adjusted terms over the previous quarter. A more detailed report on the 1Q12 GDP will be published at the end of this quarter. Attached please find the complete report, which includes supporting charts and tables for all comments (PDF file: 12 pages, 1051KB)
May 02, 2012
Cbonds Group CIS Debt Market Pipeline
Cbonds Group Планируемые выпуски на долговых рынках стран СНГ
Description
ИА Cbonds представляет данные о планируемых выпусках на долговых рынках стран СНГ. В обзоре приводятся готовящиеся сделки по внутренним облигациям, еврооблигациям и синдицированным кредитам стран СНГ. Также собрана информация по планируемым выпускам суверенных еврооблигаций развивающихся рынков. Все данные собраны на основе открытых источников и новостной ленты Cbonds.
April 30, 2012
Raiffeisen Bank Aval Ukraine: Monthly Economic and Risks Monitoring Review, April 2012
April 28, 2012
FUIB Еженедельный обзор финансовых рынков
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Украина/Ежедневный обзор рынков: Госбюджет в 1кв./Золотовалютные резервы в апреле/Альфа-Банк: результаты за 1 кв.
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Market Snapshot: State budget in 1Q12/FX reserves in April/Alfa-Bank 1Q12 results
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Обзор валютного рынка 28.04.2012
AYA Capital Q1\'12 Economic Outlook Update: “Is this time different? Probably not”
Description
We are still cautious on this year developments, and recent political and economic events in Ukraine have not changed our outlook for 2012 significantly. On the political front, the government’s inclination towards power consolidation has increased drastically ahead of autumn elections, while approval ratings have fallen and social discontent persists. Meanwhile, external conditions have already placed growth on a weaker footing and heightened pre-existing vulnerabilities. The key issue for Ukraine in 2012 is the ability to manage the ‘twin deficit’ problem (similar to 2008) in light of obvious funding constraints and unfavorable global economic environment. • Our political analysis revealed a further increase in probability of the ‘Power centralization’ scenario. Most observers say there are signs of a shift towards authoritarian rule, as the ruling elite consolidates power and tightens the grip on key political institutions ahead of parliamentary elections. These processes have occurred against the backdrop of faltered reforms, growing social discontent and falling ratings, which also induces us to see an increased probability for an unfolding of a ‘Social unrest’ scenario… • We still see a more likely unfolding of our “no shocks” scenario for Ukraine’s economy. We expect domestic-oriented industries (trade, transportation) to take the relay in growth stimulation under this scenario with a 3.8% real GDP growth in 2012. However, in case of an adverse external shock, we expect weaknesses across all industries, which should translate into a mere 0.9% growth… • Ukraine’s external balance remains at the forefront of our concerns owing to widening C/A deficit and unstable capital flows of largely short-term nature. We do not support the argument that Ukraine maintains adequate foreign currency buffers as basic metrics suggest the position is weaker than on the eve of the 2008 crisis. In this context, external financing becomes a necessity rather than optionality… • We still see red flags in inflation dynamics in 2012. Weather conditions have set the stage for a rise in food prices, while conflicts in the MENA countries are likely to keep oil prices elevated with possible second-round effects still to come. Monetary financing of budget deficit also remains an option… • We continue to see setbacks in fiscal performance in 2012 as weaker growth environment and funding constraints increase the likelihood of a reversal in the recent trends under both scenarios, while the president’s populist ‘social initiatives’ should also contribute to an overshoot in the budget deficit… See enclosed file for further details. For information requests please contact Alexander Vedeneyev CFA, Head of Research, e-mail: a.vedeneyev@ayacapital.com, tel: +38 044 392 2030
April 27, 2012
Art Capital Еженедельный обзор рынка облигаций Украины
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Украина/Ежедневный обзор рынков: Госдолг/ОВГЗ/Киев планирует внутренние заимствования
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