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December 19, 2011
Cbonds Group Планируемые выпуски на долговых рынках стран СНГ
Description
ИА Cbonds представляет данные о планируемых выпусках на долговых рынках стран СНГ. В обзоре приводятся готовящиеся сделки по внутренним облигациям, еврооблигациям и синдицированным кредитам стран СНГ. Также собрана информация по планируемым выпускам суверенных еврооблигаций развивающихся рынков. Все данные собраны на основе открытых источников и новостной ленты Cbonds.
UkrSibbank Внутренние валютные облигации как инвестиционная возможность
Otkritie Bank Долговые и денежные рынки: Ежедневный обзор. Газпром, Киев.
Bank Trust Навигатор долгового рынка. Первичный рынок: Газпромбанк, НЛМК. Комментарии: банки, украинские банки, Татнефть
December 16, 2011
ICU Moody\'s changes outlook on sovereign rating; MHP and Erste Bank news; gov\'t ready to issue USD bonds at home
Description
Moody\'s Investors Service changed its outlook on Ukraine\'s B2 local- and foreign-currency government bond ratings to Negative from Stable, under the impact of problems with external liquidity and the suspended progress in the IMF programme, pressure from problems in the global economy, and political risks due to the upcoming parliamentary elections in October 2012. Ukraine\'s bond ratings could be downgraded if the IMF programme is postponed, and on deterioration of the economic situation, especially with the balance-of-payments etc. Also, Moody\'s described possible positive movements which could bring the rating back up, like reducing the country\'s large fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and improvements in the administrative efficiency of tax and customs collections, etc. Read full comment in the attachment (13 pages, PDF file 1204KB)
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Украина/Ежедневный обзор рынков: Moody’s пересмотрело прогноз по рейтингу Украины на “негативный”/На внутреннем рынке появятся облигации, деноминированные в иностранной валюте
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Market Snapshot: Moody’s worsened outlook for Ukrainian rating/FX bonds will appear soon in the domestic market
December 15, 2011
ICU Nov. industrial production down; Jan. steel mill output; Sadovaya; Moody\'s: Possible UkrSibbank downgrade
Description
Sadovaya Group (SGR PW; Buy; PLN8.6; TP PLN11.16) announced on 14 December that it successfully put into operation the new longwall on Rassvet-1 mine on 12 December. The company expects the new longwall to operate at full capacity beginning in February 2012, with monthly coal output of up to 18,000t, or 0.216mtpa. Coal reserves at the longwall comprise 0.585mt, which is sufficient for 2.5 years of full operation mode; seam thickness is about 0.8m. Read full comment in the attachment (13 pages, PDF file 1166KB)
Raiffeisen_Bank_Aval Focus Украина (08.12.2011-14.12.2011)
USAID Financial Sector Development Project FINREP Focus: Рынок государственного долга. #49
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Украина/Ежедневный обзор рынков: Рост ВВП в 2011 г. по всей видимости сохранится на уровне 5%/Рост промпроизводства замедлился/ОВГЗ: внеплановый аукцион оказался достаточно результативным
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Market Snapshot: GDP growth likely to stay at 5% in 2011/Industrial output growth slows on weakening global demand/OVGZ: unscheduled auction reasonably successful
December 14, 2011
ICU UA-RU gas talks; banks\' economic ratios in Nov.; Fitch on risks for CIS steelmakers in 2012
Description
The state information agency Ukrpromzovnishexpertyza disclosed its outlook on the Ukrainian Metals & Mining industry in 2012 at a press conference organised by Interfax Ukraine on Tuesday. According to Ukrpromzovnishexpertyza\'s forecasts, Ukraine will increase its steel output by 3%, from 34.8mt in 2011 to 35.9mt in 2012. The agency opined that Ukrainian steel prices are currently bottoming out and should see a marginal upward correction in December 2011-January 2012. Nevertheless, the agency expects average prices for Ukrainian steel to fall US$20-25/t in 2012, while prices for iron ore and coking coal will decline by 13% YoY and 10% YoY, respectively. The agency accentuated the EU\'s becoming the key market for Ukrainian steel, after it lost significant market shares in Turkey and MENA this year. At the same time, Ukrpromzovnishexpertyza expects a further recovery of Ukraine\'s domestic steel consumption in 2012, which is estimated by the agency to increase by 45% YoY, to 7.7mt in 2011. Read full comment in the attachment (12 pages, PDF file 1174KB)
VTB Capital Книга спрэдов: спрэд OSCHAD 16 – EXIMUK 15 выглядит слишком широким
VTB Capital UAH and Rates: Gas Deal Uncertainties
UFC Capital Ukrainian Fixed Income Weekly
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Украина/Ежедневный обзор рынков: ОВГЗ: правительство не желает повышать ставки
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Market Snapshot: Government bonds: government unwilling to increase rates
December 13, 2011
ICU Natural gas talks may be at a standstill; Sadovaya Group gets USD 5-year loan; banks liquidity update
Description
Sadovaya Group (SGR PW; Buy; PLN7.97; TP PLN11.16) announced that it entered into a loan agreement with JSC OTP Bank to borrow US$25m, at a cost of 1M-LIBOR+850bp, for five years. The group further stated it would use the proceeds to repay existing loan facilities of US$18m and finance the expansion programme at Sadovaya Mine and Roskoshniy mine field. The first disbursement is scheduled for 16 December, and is subject to completion of security agreements and other conditions precedent to financing. Read full comment in the attachment (12 pages, PDF file 1080KB)
Dragon Capital Украинские облигации
Description
РЫНОК ЕВРООБЛИГАЦИЙ В четверг и пятницу все внимание рыночных игроков было приковано к саммиту ЕС, и украинские облигации закрылись небольшим снижением котировок. Украинские пятилетние свопы на дефолт по кредиту (CDS) торговались практически на прежних уровнях, прибавив в пятницу лишь 17 б.п. н/н и, таким образом, выросли до 818 б.п. (+306 б.п. с начала года). По корпоративным бумагам наблюдалось падение котировок. В понедельник председатель правления Газпрома заявил о том, что новый газовый договор с Украиной не будет подписан до конца года. Несмотря на то, что мы не исключаем, что целью данного заявления было оказание давления на Украину на фоне продолжающихся кулуарных разговоров, новость может оказать краткосрочное ценовое давление на украинские суверенные и квазисуверенные выпуски. РЫНОК ВНУТРЕННИХ ОБЛИГАЦИЙ Прошлая неделя, как и предыдущие, не была отмечена какими-либо яркими событиями для рынка внутренних облигаций. Несмотря на увеличение банковской ликвидности, инвесторы продолжали игнорировать первичные аукционы. Что касается вторичного рынка, продавцы и покупатели по-прежнему не могли договориться: при доходности 18% и ниже не было желающих покупать бумаги, а выше 19% никто не хотел продавать. В корпоративном сегменте наблюдалась низкая активность торгов. РЫНОК ЕВРООБЛИГАЦИЙ Резервы НБУ сократились в ноябре на 5,1% м/м до $32 млрд. Государственный долг составил на конец октября $59 млрд. (36% прогнозного ВВП на 2011 г.) Потребительская инфляция замедлилась в ноябре до 5,2% г/г В ноябре наблюдалось сокращение депозитной базы и кредитного портфеля украинских банков Парламент принял в первом чтении законопроект о рынке земли ДТЭК выиграла конкурс по продаже 25% акций Киевэнерго РЫНОК ВНУТРЕННИХ ОБЛИГАЦИЙ Первичный аукцион по размещению ОВГЗ вновь оказался безрезультатным, несмотря на рост банковской ликвидности Парламент разрешил Министерству финансов выпускать ОВГЗ в иностранной валюте НБУ объявил о начале проведения валютных своп-операций
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Украина/Ежедневный обзор рынков: Дефицит торгового баланса в октябре достиг максимума с осени 2008 г./ОВГЗ: нет оснований для повышения спроса
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Market Snapshot: Merchandise trade deficit in October – the largest since 2008/OVGZ: no rationale for driving demand up
December 12, 2011
ICU NBU interventions down; deposits outflow up; MCB Agricole plans to go public; CIS steel prices up; Vale; DTEK
Description
According to recently published NBU data, in November, there was a significant increase in customers deposits\' outflow, with a decrease in all types of deposits, both of businesses and households. Total deposits decreased by 2.1%, while UAH-denominated deposits decreased by 2.4%, and those of foreign currency by 1.6%. It is noteworthy that this was the biggest outflow since the beginning of 2009, on the backdrop of stressful conditions in the domestic financial market and the banking sector in Ukraine due to contagion from the Eurozone debt crisis and higher restrictive monetary policy by NBU aimed to trim demand for US dollars on the FX market. About a 91% share of total deposits\' outflow was represented by business deposits, with a total decrease of 5.2%, to UAH162.6bn; a 5.5% decrease in UAH; and a 4.7% decrease in foreign-currency deposits (not counting immaterial corrections due to a decrease in the EUR exchange rate of about 0.3%). Such an outflow of deposits likely was due to a freeze in the bank lending market, with a decrease in almost all types of loans outstanding (except UAH loans to households, possibly consumer). This was followed by actions from the regulators, increasing refinancing to UAH7.6bn during November (and UAH17.8bn since the beginning of the year). Read full comment in the attachment (16 pages, PDF file 1260KB)
Dragon Capital Gazprom’s Surprise Statement May Affect Sentiment
Description
UKRAINIAN EUROBONDS With the market being focused on the European summit on Thursday-Friday, Ukrainian bonds closed slightly lower over the week. Ukrainian 5-year CDS were almost flat, adding only 17bp w-o-w to 818bp on Friday (+306bp YTD). Corporates were marked down likewise. Gazprom issued a statement yesterday saying that it did not expect a deal with Ukraine to be signed before year-end. While we do not rule out this public statement may be intended to influence Ukraine’s stance in the ongoing behind-the-scenes talks, the news may increase negative sentiment towards Ukraine\\\'s sovereign and quasi-sovereign issues in the short run. UKRAINIAN DOMESTIC BONDS We had another uneventful week on the domestic bond market. Despite bank liquidity improving, markets continued to ignore primary auctions. On the secondary market, sellers and buyers remained far apart with a lack of bids at YTMs of 18% or lower and no offers higher than 19%. There was no active trading in the corporate segment. WEEKLY NEWS DIGEST Eurobond Market NBU reserves down 5.1% m-o-m to $32bn in November End–October public debt at $59bn (36% of 2011E GDP) Headline CPI slows to 5.2% y-o-y in November Bank lending and customer deposits down in November Parliament gives initial approval to land market bill DTEK — Wins privatization auction for 25% of Kyivenergo; strong 9M11 operating results reported Domestic Bond Market Primary Treasury auction fails again despite bank liquidity surge Parliament allows Finance Ministry to issue domestic bonds denominated in foreign currency NBU introduces F/X swaps — marginally positive for hryvnia liquidity
USAID Financial Sector Development Project FINREP Focus: Рынок государственного долга. #48
Cbonds Group Планируемые выпуски на долговых рынках стран СНГ
Description
ИА Cbonds представляет данные о планируемых выпусках на долговых рынках стран СНГ. В обзоре приводятся готовящиеся сделки по внутренним облигациям, еврооблигациям и синдицированным кредитам стран СНГ. Также собрана информация по планируемым выпускам суверенных еврооблигаций развивающихся рынков. Все данные собраны на основе открытых источников и новостной ленты Cbonds.
Cbonds Group CIS Debt Market Pipeline
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Украина/Ежедневный обзор рынков: Интервенции НБУ сократились вдвое/Ужесточение монетарной политики отразилось на денежных агрегатах/ДТЭК купил 25% в Киевэнерго
ING Commercial Banking Ukraine Ukraine/Market Snapshot: NBU FX interventions halved in November/Monetary tightening affects monetary aggregates in November/DTEK wins tender for 25% stake in Kyivenergo
December 09, 2011
ICU Core CPI slows in Nov.; NBU\'s 2nd attempt on FX swaps; liquidity continues to fall; UAH stable
Description
On 5 December, the NBU approved Provision #434, authorising the procedures on banks\' FX swaps, the beginning of which was laid out in April 2011, with changes to the regulations on the procedures and terms of trade in foreign currency. In the new provision, the regulator prescribed detailed conditions under which banks could receive local currency in exchange for FX from the NBU today. The key terms are: individual agreement with the NBU (read: the NBU\'s permission); the bank being in existence for more than a year; possession of a license for FX trading; and timely return of the NBU\'s refinancing. Under the new regulation, the sum of the swap, amount received by a bank refinancing and repo operations would now be greater than 50% of the regulatory capital, with a minimum amount of received resources of UAH10m. The provision also assumes the possibility of early termination, in case of violation; economic ratios and risk activities; foreign-exchange legislation; and legislation on prevention of laundering proceeds from criminal or terrorist financing, as the bank\'s obligations under agreement with the National Bank. Read full comment in the attachment (11 pages, PDF file 1109KB)
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