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Fixed Income Research

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  • Adamant Capital (Ukraine)
  • Concorde Capital
  • Eavex Capital
  • Empire State Capital Partners
  • Finance Ministry of Ukraine
  • FUIB
  • ICU
  • Magister Capital
  • Metinvest
  • Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine
  • NRA-Ryurik
  • OTP Bank (Ukraine)
  • Raiffeisen Bank Aval
  • Sberbank (Ukraine)
  • SP Advisors
  • UkrSibbank
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January 31, 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily January 31, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Proceeds and interest rates rise higher
Description
Yesterday, the MoF borrowed about UAH7.5bn, nearly half of which were in local currency. In addition to bonds with maturities up to one year, UAH0.73bn of 5-year bonds and US$0.14bn of USD-denominated bonds were sold. At the same time, interest rates for short-term local currency bonds increased 50bp from the previous auction, while the MoF set the 5-year bond cut-off rate at 15.80%. It accepted only the cheapest bids, or about 63% of the total demand at the auction. 
ICU Daily Insight -- Budget continues to accumulate funds
Description
At Monday's close, liquidity continued to decline because of Treasury operations as it fell UAH2.73bn to UAH96.14bn. Banks' correspondent accounts with the NBU fell UAH0.90bn to UAH45.65bn and total CDs outstanding fell UAH1.83bn to UAH50.49bn. 
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest January 24 - 30, 2018
January 30, 2018
SP Advisors Ukraine Economy: Economy: Pre-election risks loom. January 30, 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily January 30, 2018
ICU Daily Insight -- Hryvnia appreciates
Description
The hryvnia continued to strengthen on Monday for the third consecutive trading day. Correspondent accounts with the NBU falling significantly on Monday morning, along with the key policy rate cut, caused the hryvnia to strengthen by 1% last week and 1.1% more on Monday, reaching 28.2465 UAH/USD. It sold for 28.34 UAH/USD versus 28.41 to buy at the Ukrainian cash market. Its CPI-based real trade-weighted index rose 1.34% to 104.17; in year-on-year terms, it is down 2.8% from 107.17 last year.
January 29, 2018
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly Jan. 29, 2018
ICU Daily Insight -- UAH extends gains
Description
At the end of the week, the hryvnia appreciated 0.7% to 28.5486 UAH/USD, after rising 0.4% on Thursday, following the NBU's decision to raise the key policy rate by 150bps to 16%, effective Friday. In the local market, the hryvnia sold for 28.71 UAH/USD versus 28.58 to buy at the Ukrainian cash market. Its CPI-based real trade-weighted index rose 0.56% to 102.80; in year-on-year terms, it is down 4.36% from 107.28 last year. 
Empire State Capital Partners Fixed Income Weekly January 29, 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily January 29, 2018
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Jan. 29, 2018)
January 26, 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Macro & Politics, January 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily January 26, 2018
ICU Daily Insight -- NBU raises key rate by 150bps
Description
The NBU increased key rate for the third consecutive time, raising it from 12.5% in early October 2017 to the current 16%. Inflation turned out to be higher than previously projected. The supply of main food products has shrunk during the year due to unfavorable weather conditions (vegetables) and increased exports (poultry). 
Raiffeisen Bank Aval Ukraine: Economic outlook for 2018
January 25, 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily January 25, 2018
ICU Daily Insight -- Liquidity up on VAT refunds
Description
This Tuesday, the Treasury paid UAH4.22bn in VAT refunds, significantly increasing the positive impact from non-monetary operations This offset outflows via the FX auction and pushed liquidity up UAH2.31bn to 100.68bn, allocating additional funds to reserves. Banks' correspondent accounts with the NBU rose UAH2.26bn to UAH55.53bn while total CDs outstanding increased a mere UAH0.05bn to UAH45.16bn.
January 24, 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily January 24, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF sells 3-year bonds
Description
Yesterday, the MoF sold 3-year bonds for the first time since the end of October 2017. With the coupon rate set at 15.70%, the same level as 2-year bonds two weeks ago, 3-month and 6-month bonds also had cut-off rates at 16.00%, unchanged from last week. The MoF will receive UAH2.31bn of budget proceeds.
ICU Daily Insight -- MoF borrowed UAH2.31bn
Description
Yesterday, the MoF borrowed UAH2.31bn after selling mostly bonds with 3-month and 6-month maturities. It also accepted most of the demand for 3-year bonds at yields of 15.70-16.00%.
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest (January 17-23, 2018)
January 23, 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily January 23, 2018
ICU Daily Insight -- NBU absorbs liquidity
Description
Last Friday, for the fourth consecutive day the NBU sold FX, sold last week US$125m and purchased only US$17m in FX. Through last Friday's operations at the FX market, it absorbed UAH1.24bn as banks repaid an ON loan to decrease outstanding ON loans to UAH0.8bn. Only a small portion of outflows were offset by non-monetary operations. 
UkrSibbank Ukraine Capital Markets Weekly
January 22, 2018
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Jan. 22, 2018)
Empire State Capital Partners Fixed Income Weekly January 22, 2018
Empire State Capital Partners Ukraine Markets Daily January 22, 2018
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Jan. 22, 2018)
ICU Daily Insight -- UAH extends losses
Description
At the end of the week, the hryvnia weakened another 0.2% to 28.8448 UAH/USD, while over the entire week it fell 1.1%, remaining close to the 3-year low. In our view, the UAH's depreciation arose from excess demand for foreign currency at the local market as exporters refrained from selling FX while importers were actively buying FX to hedge themselves. On Friday, the hryvnia sold for 28.56 UAH/USD versus 28.75 to buy at the Ukrainian cash market. Its CPI-based real trade-weighted index fell 0.06% to 102.79; in year-on-year terms, it is down 3.08% from 105.95 last year. 
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