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Source Research
September 27, 2018
ICU Economic Insight-UkrFinForum-2018: On the eve of 2019 elections and IMF deal
ICU's 5th annual Ukrainian Financial Forum took place in Odesa on 20-21 September. As in previous years, world-famous speakers from politics, industry, and academia discussed Ukraine's achievements and pending reforms. However, this time, more attention was on the global macroeconomic situation, international trade issues, new trends in asset management and investment, and Ukraine's venture-capital landscape and startup potential. In many cases, Ukraine's 2019 elections and negotiations with the IMF dominated the discussion.
September 26, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- In looking for a compromise
The regular primary auction resulted in unchanged yields that the MoF uses for the bids acceptance, and low budget proceeds. But this week, we also saw a decline in demand, which is not positive for the Ministry prior to large debt repayments. 
ICU Weekly Insight -- Real GDP rises 3.8% YoY in 2Q18
The State Statistics Service improved its estimate of the real GDP growth in 2Q18 by 0.2ppt to 3.8% YoY and 1% QoQ SA. Ukraine's economy will expand 3.5% in 2018 thanks to solid domestic demand, further growth of investments, and favourable external conditions.
September 19, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Market insists on compromise
Yesterday's demand for new bonds slightly tightened with interest rates correcting to a lower level, but many bids were with rates above the cut-off level. This caused a low amount of budget proceeds to be raised, significantly lower than demand. As the result, the MoF received US$4m and UAH142.8m of proceeds, which was less than last week. 
ICU Weekly Insight -- IMF may exchange Ukraine's programme
Exchange of the current EFF programme with a stand-by facility significantly lowers risk of Ukraine's ability to service external debt in 2018-19.
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