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  • ICU
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Source Research
August 01, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF borrows UAH1bn
At its regular primary auction, the MoF offered three issues of bills with six-month, 11-month, and three-year maturities. Received demand allowed the MoF to sell six-month and three-year paper, and they received more than UAH1bn of proceeds.
July 31, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Budget deficit persists
Central government budget balance improved slightly in June, bringing the 1H18 budget balance to a deficit of UAH9.8bn.
July 25, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- FX-denominated bonds prevail
As expected, at this week's primary auction, FX-denominated bonds prevailed. They were offered in five issues; only two hryvnia bills were offered. The cut-off interest rates were changed for some issues, and the MoF received nearly UAH5bn of proceeds.
July 24, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- NBU estimates real GDP at +3.2% YoY in 2Q18
Economic growth accelerated to 3.2% YoY in 2Q18, up from 3.1% YoY in 1Q18, per data from the NBU. In QoQ terms, growth was 0.8% QoQ SA (ICU's estimate as implied by NBU's 2Q18 year-on-year estimate).
July 18, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Cost of borrowing increases
After the NBU increased the key rate by 50bp to 17.5%, the Ministry of Finance had to increase cut-off rates at the primary auction yesterday, which, once again, increased the cost of budget financing. For three-month and six-month bills, rates were increased by 60bp, and for 12-month and three-year instruments by 45bp and 55bp, respectively.
July 17, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- NBU raised the key rate to 17.5%
Another increase in the key rate by the NBU indicates concern about the possibility of higher-than-expected prices, as well as the threat of disrupting the cooperation programme with the IMF.
July 11, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Demand remains moderate
Yesterday's regular primary auction held by the MoF was quite successful, providing the state budget with nearly UAH3bn of proceeds, which were nearly equally divided between local and FX currency instruments. These proceeds allowed the MoF to refinance about half of this week's debt repayments, which is a good result from the auction.
July 10, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Official FX reserves drop by 1.1% MoM in June
International reserves continued to decline due to repayment of government debt and accrued interest. The amount of reserves covers 3.2 months of future imports, but further cooperation with official creditors is crucial for keeping them at a sufficient level.
July 04, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF returns interest rate to former level
At its debut auction in July, the MoF offered only medium-term instruments with 1.5-year, two-year, and three-year maturities. These instruments have not seen large demand in recent months, and, yesterday, they received only UAH382.5m of demand. The MoF sold only three-year notes at the 16.15% cut-off rate, which is usual for this paper.
July 03, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- The state budget is in deficit
At the end of May, the state budget deficit was UAH9.2bn, and its general-fund deficit was UAH14.2bn. At the same time, the amount of the deficit declined for both during May from UAH20.6bn and UAH25.5bn, respectively.
June 26, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Real GDP in 1Q18 confirmed at 3.1% YoY
The State Statistics Service confirmed real GDP growth in 1Q18 at 3.1% YoY, which supports our forecast for economic expansion in full-year 2018 at 3.5%.
June 20, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Slight changes in rates
Yesterday's demand was expectedly concentrated at FX-denominated paper, which allowed the MoF to refinance all of June's principal repayments and interest payments. Interest rates for all bonds in local and FX saw slight changes by a few basis points. 
ICU Weekly Insight -- Anti-corruption court legislation on its way
Ukrainian parliament still needs to pass supplementary bills to secure establishment and proper functioning of the HACC, as well as provide full compliance of the HACC law with the requirements of the IMF. Still, these procedures may be finalized by parliament as soon as this week.
June 13, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF borrowed more than UAH7bn
At yesterday's auction, the Ministry of Finance borrowed about UAH7.4bn, refinancing current debt repayments. Most of the proceeds came from FX-denominated instruments, which enabled the MoF to receive nearly half of FX-denominated debt repayments scheduled for this month. 
June 12, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Ukraine approves Anticorruption court
Adoption of the Anti-corruption Law is a crucial step towards the implementation of the key conditions of the IMF financial aid programme. But the next tranche has not been secured yet. 
June 06, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Offering of zero-coupon bills
At yesterday's auction, the MoF offered only zero-coupon bills with maturities of two, five, and 12 months. The MoF received UAH1.44bn of demand, accepted nearly two-thirds of it, and sold UAH948.2m of bonds at par value. Today, the MoF received UAH901.4m of budget proceeds.
June 05, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Higher probability of a hike in the key policy rate
The NBU may tighten monetary policy and impose restrictions on FX operations in the absence of the next tranche from the IMF, according to Yakiv Smoliy, the governor of the NBU.
May 30, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Expensive demand rejected
In the regular primary auction this week, borrowings were slight, as the Ministry of Finance rejected bids with a higher cost of borrowing than has been seen in recent months. However, a few bonds were sold with a slight increase in interest rates by a few basis points.
ICU Аналітика по облігаціях -- Дорогий попит знову відхилений
Черговий первинний аукціон завершився із незначними обсягами запозичень, оскільки емітент відмовився позичати кошти за значно вищою від попередніх розміщень ціною. Однак за тими випусками, що були все-таки розміщені, вартість запозичень також піднялася на кілька базисних пунктів. 
ICU Weekly Insight -- NBU predictably kept key rate unchanged
The NBU left its benchmark rate unchanged for the second consecutive month at 17%, which did not come as a surprise to the market.
May 23, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF increases FX-denominated borrowings
In response to low demand for local currency bonds, the MoF amended the auction schedule to offer FX-denominated bonds at higher interest rates. 
May 22, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- IMF requirements may be met soon
The Verkhovna Rada's consideration of the law on the Anticorruption Court in the second reading may begin this week and be successfully completed in June. It is also possible to reach a compromise on gas tariffs.
May 16, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Non-competitive demand share increases
Accepting 82% of demand and leaving the cut-off rates unchanged for most bonds, the MoF rejected only three (at higher rates) out of 22 bids at yesterday's auction. Total demand of UAH413m was equally divided among the offerings, the largest being for the 2-year bond. 
May 15, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Headline inflation at 13.1% YoY in April
Headline inflation slowed to 0.8% MoM in April, down from 1.1% MoM in March, while in YoY terms, it remained almost unchanged at 13.1%. Consumer prices will remain under pressure from high consumer demand, rising oil prices, inflationary expectations and expansionary fiscal policy.
May 10, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF keeps yield curve steady
This Tuesday's auction, 3-month and 3-year bonds provided nearly 70% of the UAH1bn of budget proceeds.
May 08, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Official FX reserves rose 1.3% MoM
Ukraine's official FX reserves rose by US$229m or 1.3% MoM, and amounted to US$18.4bn as of 1 May 2018. We expect that official FX reserves will rise to US$20bn by the end of 2018 thanks to the next tranche from the IMF and Ukraine's placement of Eurobonds. 
May 03, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Public debt fell 0.7% MoM in March
The total amount of public and publicly guaranteed debt of Ukraine fell 0.7% MoM or UAH15.2bn, and amounted to UAH2.05tn (66% of GDP) in March. Thanks to further GDP growth and a sustained primary budget surplus, the public debt level will end up below the 70% of GDP threshold by December 2018.
April 26, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF refinances almost 90% of principal
Tuesday's auction proceeds of UAH3.7bn, including UAH2.7bn from euro-denominated bonds, allowed the MoF to refinance almost 70% of UAH5.4bn in total debt repayments. UAH5.2bn of these repayments were denominated in local currency, including UAH4.3bn of principal repayments.
April 24, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- NBU estimates real GDP at +2.3% YoY in 1Q18
Economic growth accelerated to 2.3% YoY in 1Q18, up from 2.2% YoY in 4Q17, per data from the NBU. In QoQ terms growth remained at 0.6% QoQ SA (ICU's estimate as implied by NBU's 1Q18 year-on-year estimation). Solid consumer demand and high fixed investment will continue to push up real GDP growth.
April 18, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Slight increase in rates
Yesterday, the MoF sold UAH500m each of 3-month and 6-month bonds at slightly higher rates. The MoF refinanced less than half of the principal repayments scheduled for this week. 
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