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Fixed Income Research

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  • ICU
  • Adamant Capital (Ukraine)
  • Concorde Capital
  • Eavex Capital
  • Empire State Capital Partners
  • Finance Ministry of Ukraine
  • FUIB
  • Magister Capital
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  • Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine
  • NRA-Ryurik
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Source Research
June 20, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Slight changes in rates
Yesterday's demand was expectedly concentrated at FX-denominated paper, which allowed the MoF to refinance all of June's principal repayments and interest payments. Interest rates for all bonds in local and FX saw slight changes by a few basis points. 
ICU Weekly Insight -- Anti-corruption court legislation on its way
Ukrainian parliament still needs to pass supplementary bills to secure establishment and proper functioning of the HACC, as well as provide full compliance of the HACC law with the requirements of the IMF. Still, these procedures may be finalized by parliament as soon as this week.
June 13, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF borrowed more than UAH7bn
At yesterday's auction, the Ministry of Finance borrowed about UAH7.4bn, refinancing current debt repayments. Most of the proceeds came from FX-denominated instruments, which enabled the MoF to receive nearly half of FX-denominated debt repayments scheduled for this month. 
June 12, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Ukraine approves Anticorruption court
Adoption of the Anti-corruption Law is a crucial step towards the implementation of the key conditions of the IMF financial aid programme. But the next tranche has not been secured yet. 
June 06, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Offering of zero-coupon bills
At yesterday's auction, the MoF offered only zero-coupon bills with maturities of two, five, and 12 months. The MoF received UAH1.44bn of demand, accepted nearly two-thirds of it, and sold UAH948.2m of bonds at par value. Today, the MoF received UAH901.4m of budget proceeds.
June 05, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Higher probability of a hike in the key policy rate
The NBU may tighten monetary policy and impose restrictions on FX operations in the absence of the next tranche from the IMF, according to Yakiv Smoliy, the governor of the NBU.
May 30, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Expensive demand rejected
In the regular primary auction this week, borrowings were slight, as the Ministry of Finance rejected bids with a higher cost of borrowing than has been seen in recent months. However, a few bonds were sold with a slight increase in interest rates by a few basis points.
ICU Аналітика по облігаціях -- Дорогий попит знову відхилений
Черговий первинний аукціон завершився із незначними обсягами запозичень, оскільки емітент відмовився позичати кошти за значно вищою від попередніх розміщень ціною. Однак за тими випусками, що були все-таки розміщені, вартість запозичень також піднялася на кілька базисних пунктів. 
ICU Weekly Insight -- NBU predictably kept key rate unchanged
The NBU left its benchmark rate unchanged for the second consecutive month at 17%, which did not come as a surprise to the market.
May 23, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF increases FX-denominated borrowings
In response to low demand for local currency bonds, the MoF amended the auction schedule to offer FX-denominated bonds at higher interest rates. 
May 22, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- IMF requirements may be met soon
The Verkhovna Rada's consideration of the law on the Anticorruption Court in the second reading may begin this week and be successfully completed in June. It is also possible to reach a compromise on gas tariffs.
May 16, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Non-competitive demand share increases
Accepting 82% of demand and leaving the cut-off rates unchanged for most bonds, the MoF rejected only three (at higher rates) out of 22 bids at yesterday's auction. Total demand of UAH413m was equally divided among the offerings, the largest being for the 2-year bond. 
May 15, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Headline inflation at 13.1% YoY in April
Headline inflation slowed to 0.8% MoM in April, down from 1.1% MoM in March, while in YoY terms, it remained almost unchanged at 13.1%. Consumer prices will remain under pressure from high consumer demand, rising oil prices, inflationary expectations and expansionary fiscal policy.
May 10, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF keeps yield curve steady
This Tuesday's auction, 3-month and 3-year bonds provided nearly 70% of the UAH1bn of budget proceeds.
May 08, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Official FX reserves rose 1.3% MoM
Ukraine's official FX reserves rose by US$229m or 1.3% MoM, and amounted to US$18.4bn as of 1 May 2018. We expect that official FX reserves will rise to US$20bn by the end of 2018 thanks to the next tranche from the IMF and Ukraine's placement of Eurobonds. 
May 03, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Public debt fell 0.7% MoM in March
The total amount of public and publicly guaranteed debt of Ukraine fell 0.7% MoM or UAH15.2bn, and amounted to UAH2.05tn (66% of GDP) in March. Thanks to further GDP growth and a sustained primary budget surplus, the public debt level will end up below the 70% of GDP threshold by December 2018.
April 26, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF refinances almost 90% of principal
Tuesday's auction proceeds of UAH3.7bn, including UAH2.7bn from euro-denominated bonds, allowed the MoF to refinance almost 70% of UAH5.4bn in total debt repayments. UAH5.2bn of these repayments were denominated in local currency, including UAH4.3bn of principal repayments.
April 24, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- NBU estimates real GDP at +2.3% YoY in 1Q18
Economic growth accelerated to 2.3% YoY in 1Q18, up from 2.2% YoY in 4Q17, per data from the NBU. In QoQ terms growth remained at 0.6% QoQ SA (ICU's estimate as implied by NBU's 1Q18 year-on-year estimation). Solid consumer demand and high fixed investment will continue to push up real GDP growth.
April 18, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Slight increase in rates
Yesterday, the MoF sold UAH500m each of 3-month and 6-month bonds at slightly higher rates. The MoF refinanced less than half of the principal repayments scheduled for this week. 
April 17, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- NBU kept key policy rate at 17%
The central bank believes that the current monetary policy is tight enough to bring inflation back to its target by mid-2019. Due to high inflationary risk, monetary policy will continue to be tight in 2018.
April 12, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Demand remains low
This week, primary auction demand hit below UAH500m (par value). After rejecting some bids, the state budget received only UAH455.1m. The MoF changed interest rates just by a few basis points.
April 11, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Official FX reserves down on debt repayment
Ukraine's official FX reserves declined by US$219m or 1.2% MoM, and amounted to US$18.2bn as of 1 April 2018. Despite recent decrease, we expect that official FX reserves will rise to US$20bn by the end of 2018. 
April 04, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Debt burden in July increases
The MoF offered only the 3-month bond maturing on 4 July yesterday, selling UAH184.3m at an unchanged rate. July is known to be one of the most difficult months of the year to refinance debt.
April 03, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Annualized C/A deficit up
Annualized C/A deficit declined 6.3% MoM to US$2.1bn, but surged 3.4 times compared with February 2017, per revised data from the NBU. The C/A deficit is to widen further this year due to rising imports of consumer goods, higher oil prices and an expected decrease in steel prices.
March 27, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Real GDP growth accelerates in 2017
Ukraine's real GDP exceeded the preliminary estimate of 2.2% growth and accelerated to 2.5% in full-year 2017, up from revised 2.4% in 2016.
March 21, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF increases borrowings
At yesterday's primary auction, the MoF offered an unscheduled EURO-denominated bond in place of a 12-month local currency bond offering. With budget proceeds UAH6.37bn, including EUR123.3m, the MoF saw increased demand for local currency bonds.
March 20, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- NBU kept the hryvnia from further appreciation
Early last week, the regulator twice entered the market to buy foreign currency, which kept the UAH from further appreciation. We expect short-term depreciation of the national currency in the near future, but the overall trend is for appreciation by mid-year.
March 14, 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Yield curve mostly unchanged
Again concentrated on 3-month bonds, with the cut-off rate last week increased to 17.50%, demand was at the highest level of the yield curve at yesterday's primary auction. Most budget proceeds came from 12-month and 2-year maturities.
March 13, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- Key policy rate pushes bond yields up
Primary bond market yield curve mostly flat at around the key policy rate; could rise further. 
March 07, 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- NBU raises the key policy rate to 17%
The reason for the fourth consecutive increase is higher-than-expected inflation in January, as well as the absence of significant signs of weakening of inflationary risks. High inflation in the following months may result in a further interest rate hike. 
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