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Concorde Capital Research: Ukraine plans to agree with IMF on new loan this month, media report

October 10, 2018 | Cbonds

The Ukrainian government is intending reach an agreement on a new loan with the IMF this month, the ukranews.com news site reported on Oct. 10, citing its anonymous sources. “Ideally, it should be done by Oct. 18, but we hardly have enough time,” the news agency said, citing its sources familiar with the talks. This deadline was prompted by the Cabinet’s decision to postpone the IMF-required adjustment of natural gas prices for households until Oct. 18. Most likely, the government will have to postpone the gas price hike until the end of October, the ukranews.com news site concluded.

Besides the outstanding issues of gas pricing and parliamentary approval of a balanced 2019 state budget, there are also some anti-corruption issues, the news agency reported. In particular, the IMF wants to see the progress in Ukraine's establishment of a fully functioning High Anti-Corruption Court, as well as initiate an objective study of the work of Specialized Anti-Corruption Head Prosecutor Nazar Kholodnytskiy.

An IMF deal would result in the initiation of a new Stand-By Arrangement, instead of the Extended Funds Facility (EFF) program that was launched in March 2015. Out of USD 17.5 bln under the EFF program, which was initially planned to be disbursed in 16 quarterly tranches till March 2019, Ukraine was able to receive only four tranches for USD 8.6 bln.

Alexander Paraschiy: It still looks possible that Ukraine will resolve all the IMF-required conditions (including approval of the 2019 state budget) by October 18, but most likely, Ukraine will push back the deadline to end-October to resolve all the remaining issues. In any case, it is highly likely Ukraine will see a positive decision from the IMF board on a new loan tranche in November, considering how critical a role it will play in Ukraine's economy in getting through the tumultuous period of 2019.

Company: Ukraine

Full company nameUkraine
Country of riskUkraine

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