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Concorde Capital Research: Fitch confirms Ukraine’s B- rating and stable outlook

October 29, 2018 | Cbonds

Fitch Ratings reported on Oct. 26 it has affirmed Ukraine's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at “B-“, as well the rating’s stable outlook. Commenting on the action, Fitch said that that ratings “balance weak external liquidity, high external financing needs driven by sovereign external debt …, institutional constraints and geopolitical and political risks, against improved policy credibility and consistency, improving macroeconomic stability, declining government debt and a track record of bilateral and multilateral support.”

The agency stressed the IMF’s key role in enabling Ukraine’s access to external financing, stating that delays or a collapse of the new IMF loan program could trigger its negative rating action. It warned that the 2019 election season in Ukraine creates “risks for smooth progress” under the agreed-upon IMF program. At the same time, Ukraine’s rising external liquidity and improved economic performance are factors that could trigger an upward rating revision.

Alexander Paraschiy: The biggest risk for Ukraine's finances currently is inability to reach an agreement with the IMF on the new loan program. Given that Ukraine has not yet fulfilled its commitments for the next IMF loan tranche, we see Fitch’s "stable outlook" as an encouragement allowance for Ukraine. At the same time, fundamentally, we agree that Ukraine deserves such encouragement, and so far we expect the country will do all its best to secure the next IMF loan tranche as soon as possible.

Company: Ukraine

Full company nameUkraine
Country of riskUkraine


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