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NBU predicts plunge in deficit of balance of payment in 2010

February 02, 2010 | “Interfax-Ukraine via the Kyiv Post"

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has predicted that the deficit of the country's balance of payment will plunge in 2010, while in 2009 it came to $13.727 billion, Ihor Shumylo, the NBU director for economic issues.

"We expect the deficit of the current transactions account close to a zero and a small deficit of the financial account," he told the press on Feb. 1.

He said that the achievement of the said indicators is foreseen in an optimistic scenario, which also stipulates the approval of a realistic national budget.

"As a part of the scenario there are no grounds for the serious devaluation – over 10%, and for serious appreciation," he said.

Shumylo said that the realization of the above-mentioned scenario allows expecting a 16% rise in exports of goods and services and a 14% rise in imports in 2010 after their fall in 2009 by 36.7% and 43.1% respectively.

He said that the central bank expects a zero balance of the current account or the deficit at up to $1 billion. The deficit of the financial account will lower by three or four times compared to 2009.

Commenting the current situation, Shumylo said that according to preliminary data, in January currency inflow to the country from exports exceeded currency outflow via imports.

As reported, the deficit of Ukraine's current account in 2009 reached $1.94 billion, and the deficit of the financial account totaled $11.787 billion.


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