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Curve Flattens as Consumer Confidence Misses Estimates

October 26, 2016 | Morningstar

U.S. government notes and bonds traded higher and the yield curve flattened today after the CB Consumer Confidence Index fell more than expected in October. Housing price data for August was also released and came out mostly in line with forecasts. After declining early in the session to trade to one-week lows, Treasury prices (which move inversely to yields) rallied sharply. The U.S. Dollar Index (-0.07% to 98.69) and the S&P 500 (-0.37% to 2,143.4) both traded lower as the U.S. economic picture soured. While the softening consumer confidence data is worrisome, consumer spending tends to follow personal income in the longer term so we should be careful not to make too much of today's report. Wednesday's session features more housing market data (September New Home Sales) and an auction of $35 bln of 5-year Treasuries.

Yield Check:
2-yr: +1 bp to 0.86%
5-yr: unch at 1.28%
10-yr: -1 bp to 1.76%
30-yr: -2 bps to 2.50%


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