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Yield Curve Steepens as Dollar Declines

October 31, 2016 | Morningstar

The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened today and yields edged lower as a slightly positive surprise from the first estimate of Q3 U.S. GDP growth was overshadowed by a report that the FBI will reopen an investigation into Hillary Clinton's e-mails. The 2-year/10-year yield spread is back to 100 basis points for the first time in months. While stocks have recovered from their session lows (S&P 500: -0.19% to 2,128.9), they remain close to key technical support levels and the technical situation is precarious. High yield debt also performed poorly today with JNK ETF falling 0.33% to 36.41 as credit spreads widened. Part of the driver there was a sharp drop in oil prices after Iraq and Iran were rumored to say that they will not participate in output reductions. The FOMC will release its rate decision next Wednesday and is widely expected to keep monetary policy on hold. The U.S. Dollar Index now trades down 0.53% to 98.37.

Yield Check:
2-yr: -4 bps to 0.85%
5-yr: -2 bps to 1.33%
10-yr: -1 bp to 1.85%
30-yr:unch at 2.62%

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