Banks' correspondent accounts with the NBU rose once more yesterday, up UAH2.56bn to UAH44.69bn, the largest amount since mid-October 2016. At the same time, total CDs outstanding fell UAH2.59bn to UAH37.86bn, the lowest amount this month. As a result, banking sector liquidity slid a mere UAH0.03bn to UAH82.56bn.
Investment implications: The NBU has not sold FX from reserves since 21 September, 2016, but yesterday sold US$33.6m at UAH26.3219/USD and absorbed UAH0.88bn of local currency funds from the banking system. This outflow will increase pressure on liquidity from recent tax payments. During two days this week, the MoF received UAH5.25bn of revenues, and it appears that other amounts over the next few days will be similar at around UAH2.5bn per day. Also, banks had to repay to the NBU UAH0.72bn of loans. If these repayments were not refinanced, this amount will also decrease liquidity. Consequently, today liquidity could decline to around UAH80-81bn.
ICU is an asset management and investmnet banking company.