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ICU Research: Liquidity near year's low

November 16, 2017 | Cbonds

This Tuesday, outflows to budget accounts rose significantly as the Treasury's net absorption was UAH1.90bn. With UAH0.26bn of outflows via reserves exchanged into cash and inflows via other operations at UAH0.02bn, the net impact of non-monetary operations was negative UAH2.14bn. Additional outflows caused by the NBU came from two banks which repaid UAH0.03bn of ON loans received on Monday. As a result, banking sector liquidity fell UAH2.17bn to UAH73.37bn.

Banks' correspondent accounts remained steady, up just UAH0.11bn to UAH47.67bn, while total CDs outstanding fell UAH2.28bn to UAH25.71bn. ON CDs remained steady, up only UAH0.01bn to UAH2.58bn, while the decline in CDs was caused by a decrease in 2-week CDs outstanding of UAH2.29bn.

Investment implications: While liquidity is under the pressure of quarterly tax payments, which become larger, it declined just UAH0.48bn above this year's low. The VAT refund was very minimal yesterday, and, after yesterday's cash flows, liquidity could fall once more to a new low. If budget expenditures do not increase to the same level as taxes, liquidity could decline further below last years' low seen November 2016 after quarterly tax payments.

Company: ICU

Full company nameICU
Country of riskUkraine
IndustryFinancial institutions

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