January 15, 2018 | Cbonds
After Wednesday's recovery due to inflows from the Treasury via expenditures and from the NBU via loans, liquidity once more declined on Thursday, down UAH3.27bn to UAH99.66bn. The decline was caused by the same cash flows, but in the opposite direction. The negative balance of Treasury operations was UAH1.62bn and banks repaid UAH0.70bn of loans to the NBU. Also, the NBU absorbed UAH1.08bn via other monetary operations as it most likely sold FX to several banks.
Banks' correspondent accounts with the NBU fell UAH0.98bn to UAH52.51bn and total CDs outstanding fell UAH2.30bn to UAH47.15bn. Banks decreased 2-week CDs by UAH3.12bn, reallocating a small portion of funds into ON CDs.
Investment implications: Despite the positive balance of operations with cash since the year's beginning, this inflow could not support liquidity as little to no budget expenditures caused outflows from banks to Treasury accounts. This also forced some banks to borrow liquidity from the NBU. This week, liquidity should continue to decline due to ongoing low budget expenditures, and next week it be under pressure from month-end tax payments, possibly pushing it down to around UAH90bn.
|Full company name||ICU|
|Country of risk||Ukraine|