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Eavex Capital Research: Ukrainian Eurobonds weekly comment

March 13, 2018 | Cbonds

Ukraine’s sovereign Eurobonds were little changed last week after initial worries that the latest natural gas disagreement between Kyiv and Moscow could lead to serious problems faded away with the end of freezing weather. An early March cold snap, the harshest of this year’s winter in Ukraine, led Russia’s Gazprom to threaten Ukraine that it would terminate its gas contracts due to unauthorized fuel siphoning. Any such move by Gazprom would also negatively affect gas flows to Europe. The issue of Kyiv’s access to extra supplies during winter cold snaps is the source of a long-running dispute that prompted Russia to suspend gas exports to Europe through Ukraine twice already, during the winters of 2005-06 and 2008-09.

An encouraging piece of business news was the successful auction for 4G licenses in the 1800 MHz band. The country’s three largest mobile operators acquired the licenses from the state for a total sum of UAH 5.4bn (USD 200mn); this should lead to a marked improvement in Ukraine’s national telecommunications infrastructure.

The longest outstanding Ukrainian Eurobonds, Ukraine-32s, were unchanged at 96.7/97.4 (7.8%/7.7%), while quotes for medium-term Ukraine-23s inched down 0.1% to 104.2/104.9 (6.8%/6.7%). The generally more volatile the VRI derivatives (linked to Ukraine’s future GDP growth with expiration in 2040) were flat at to 67.8/68.8 cents on the dollar.

MHP-24s did not react to publication of the company’s FY17 financials, which implied a Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.25x at the end of 2017. The bonds had quotes of 108.3/108.8 (6.1%/6.0%). DTEK-24s edged up 0.6% to 107.0/107.8 (9.3%/9.1%) after the group said it will pay the upcoming coupon due in July fully in cash (the bond was restructured back in 2016, allowing for payment of only around half of the 2018 coupon at the 10.75% rate in cash, with the remaining amount to be capitalized).

Quasi-sovereign UkrEximBank-25s fell by 0.6% to 107.4/107.7 (8.3%/8.2%).

Issue: Ukraine, 7.75% 1sep2027, USD

StatusCountry of riskRedemption (offer)VolumeEmission Rating (M/S&P/F)
outstandingUkraine09/01/20271,307,161,000 USDB-/Caa2/B-

Company: Ukraine

Full company nameUkraine
Country of riskUkraine

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